Home > 2010 Elections > A Bright Spot in Nevada…

A Bright Spot in Nevada…


And that would be in NV03 where former State Senator Joe Heck is poised to send first term Democrat Dina Titus to the unemployment line.

Before we take a look at the latest polling from American Action Forum, let’s look at some background on the race from the Las Vegas Sun

It [NV03] is on the blue side of purple. Democrats have 173,000 registered voters, Republicans 147,000. Titus has held the seat for two years, but a Republican, Jon Porter, held it the previous six — since its formation after the 2000 census.

Ultimately, the direction of this bellwether district will likely be decided by its 65,000 unaffiliated voters, or 16 percent of its registered voters.

[…]

Independent voters pushed President Barack Obama to victory in 2008 and tipped Congress toward the Democrats in 2006. But this year, more independents are leaning Republican, according to a national Pew Research Center poll, likely because of the stagnant economy and Obama’s drooping approval ratings.

[…]

Neither Reid nor Titus can bank on nonaffiliated metropolitan voters pushing them to victory, experts said. Taking the district and the election will depend on candidates convincing this melting pot of voters that their philosophy is the right one to put the country back on track.

Putting the country “back on track”. That should be a good talking point for a candidate who is trying to replace an incumbent who is closely aligned with the President who has taken the country off track and is currently at -18 points nationally according to Rasmussen.

Also note in the Sun is this ray of sunshine for Heck…

This year Titus has no one at the top to generate the kind of enthusiasm Barack Obama did among the faithful and independents to carry her over the finish line. She beat Porter by 5 percentage points in the 3rd Congressional District; Obama won the district by 13 points. Without him, she loses.

This year, it’s Reid-Reid at the top and somehow it doesn’t seem the same. I know Harry Reid. I know Rory Reid. Neither is Barack Obama.

The only thing she’s got going for her would be an abundance of money and the support of unions like AFSCME who are running ads that are outright lies. See here for examples of just how low Titus and her acolytes will stoop. Hint: very low.

Let’s take a look at the highlights of the polling data.

The bottom line is that, as of August 23-24, Heck is up by 3 points. That’s inside the 4.90% MoE, but directionally it’s in the right direction. The reasons for optimism in NV03 include the following…

  • Right/Wrong Track. There’s a 50% difference here and NV03 voters aren’t happy with the direction we’re headed.
  • Jobs and immigration. Neither of these are issues that should help Titus.
  • Issues that voters say will effect their vote should be a strong positive for Heck.
  • ObamaCare. Once again, this issues is a huge net minus for the incumbent Democrat.
  • Name ID should be a net plus for Heck, given that Titus is at a 46/46 split F/U and 44% of NV03 voters either don’t know Heck or have no opinion of him and of those who have formed an opinion the 32/21 F/U.

And the real nail in Titus’ coffin should be the Reid family. The voters seem to be hating Harry and his son looks like a big loser in the Governor’s race.

NV03 should return to the Republican fold this year and please consider helping Joe Heck.

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